PDI | Political Data

[...] Updated at 5:15PM Election Day is here, and one last day for campaigns to try and prove Sac Bee Columnist Dan Walter’s 25% [...]

[...] Election Day is here, and one last day for campaigns to try and prove Sac Bee Columnist Dan Walter’s 25% [...]

[...] mail-in ballots are received, and a second pass to late Absentees and poll voters closer to Election Day. The final universes, 14GGOTV and 14GWRAP are unique to PDI and have only been used in one [...]

[...] ’t declare a permanent partisan status – they just pick a party they want to be with on Election Day. In that data-poor landscape, modeling must be used to help you find voters who should [...]

[...] business.  As we get to the close of the 2014 election season we can see this in action with a voter file that has had all but two counties updated in the past 13 days, with another 44 updates of [...]

[...] on the ground. In one Northern California district in 2012, a candidate not using PDI had a voter file that had last been updated 35-days out from the election. That sounds like it should be pretty [...]

[...] .  A similar, but smaller surge has been seen in the 2006 and 2010 elections. The voter file has few ways to really see “voter enthusiasm” but clearly, the number of voters rushing [...]

[...] or likelihood of a voter to turnout and vote. These formulas are then run across the entire voter file giving every voter a score which can then be used as a way to drive campaign resources. In some [...]

[...] district, along with reports for each 58 counties can be found in our daily Count Report: PDI Statewide Returns by District 5.27 (PDF) [...]

[...] document for every campaign in California – Who has voted, by District and county: PDI Statewide Returns by District 5.28 (PDF) [...]

[...] . And, again, today’s district-by-district, county-by-county count sheet of ballots cast: PDI Statewide Returns by District 5.29 (PDF) [...]

[...] absentee ballot return spreadsheet based on the latest returns we received on Friday. PDI Statewide Returns by District 5.30 (PDF) [...]

[...] voters that register in the last two weeks.  And, as always, Political Data will have these new registrants on our client systems, directly from each of the 58 counties, as soon as it is available. [...]

[...] ’t in the voter modeling project, or maybe the campaign wasn’t even aware of the surge in new registrants that had been done on the ground. In one Northern California district in 2012, a candidate [...]

[...] , particularly with the ease of registering online, we saw just 53,000. The full picture of new registrants statewide and within each district can be seen in our New Registration Tracker, which is [...]

[...] of turnout, particularly among partisan voters.  This same chart, but keyed to the 2012 election cycle shows the same partisan slipping, but a more stable vote from those not aligned with either [...]

[...] close to the 2.285 million ballots that were received by PDI on the eve of the 2012 election cycle. The daily tracker of partisan returns shows some recovery among Dems and Reps from last week, [...]

[...] close to the 2.285 million ballots that were received by PDI on the eve of the 2012 election cycle. The daily tracker of partisan returns shows some recovery among Dems and Reps from last week, [...]

[...] New Registrations play an important part of every election cycle. Campaigns can be won or lost based on months-long efforts to build a larger voting base, and [...]

[...] interesting finding in this data which can be seen statewide – the reduced turnout among partisan voters, and stability or increase in non-partisan voters.  Go ahead and use the scrolling tool to [...]

[...] of where they stand going into Election Day. Are they seeing the rates of returns for their partisan voters, or are they seeing the quantity of returns they expected given the amount of outreach they [...]

[...] daily log of returns we see a more dramatic slipping of turnout, particularly among partisan voters.  This same chart, but keyed to the 2012 election cycle shows the same partisan slipping, but [...]

[...] differential. This year PDI has released a public tool allowing campaigns to see the new voter registration, compare to 2012 and 2010 voter registration surges, and see how the newly registered [...]

[...] for each county, and in it we find some surprising datapoints. The late surge of voter registration in past election years was documented in a prior blog posting.  As that writeup [...]

[...] with voter models: Know your data first. A couple years ago an East Coast firm sent us modeling data splitting the state in half and asked for two mail files based on those scores. We found out [...]

[...] ballots available. The raw number is still tracking, but as a percentage of potential absentee voters, the numbers are slipping. The percentage of Absentee Voters turning in their ballot was [...]