TorontoWxCenter

[...] Click to view full image Feb: Reduced: 90% of original size [ 565 x 436 ] - Click to view full image Dec temps: Reduced: 90% of original size [ 565 x 436 ] [...]

[...] % of original size [ 565 x 436 ] - Click to view full image [...]

[...] 's with December 78 and 66 showing this response. Dec 1978 warming at 10hpa: Reduced: 90% of original size [ 565 x 437 ] - Click to view full image Tropospheric response shows a very anomalous alaskan [...]

[...] where we are trending this year given expected troughiness. 1990-91 SST setup: Reduced: 90% of original size [ 565 x 436 ] - Click to view full image Euro DEC forecast looks fairly similar with the [...]

[...] a very wintry pattern for the east. Reduced: 90% of original size [ 565 x 436 ] - Click to view full image A strong positive momentum transport in NOV/ early DEC meant very warm conditions for most in [...]

[...] with an active east asian jet. Reduced: 90% of original size [ 565 x 437 ] - Click to view full image What this also means is a recovery of the vortex is likely to occur by mid november, with a [...]

[...] blocking and strong AK trough Reduced: 90% of original size [ 565 x 436 ] - Click to view full image Current SLP pattern looks fairly similar to september 2011 which preceded a winter with a very [...]

[...] formed in the early spring period. Reduced: 94% of original size [ 540 x 405 ] - Click to view full image 4)AAO/Atlantic circumpolar wave forcing has helped keep the western IO cool while SST's in and [...]

[...] area. - Below normal Temperatures expected for Toronto, Montreal, Ottawa and Vancouver. Below normal snowfall across Eastern Canada(YYZ,YUL,YOW) and the Great Lakes(outside of the LES belts). Above [...]

[...] that is based further west then WB nino's which brings down the PNA overall and pumps the SE ridge.  In addition, East Based nino's tend to force a stronger South-American hadley cell which [...]

[...] of storm track/snow interests. 2) The warm SST's off the east coast tend to pump up a stronger SE ridge like 51-52 saw in the December-January period. 3) Keeping an eye on the positioning of the nino. [...]

[...] ] - Click to view full image 500mb heights that winter have more of a positive NAO look with a SE ridge and a -WPO/strong aleutians ridge. Reduced: 90% of original size [ 565 x 436 ] - Click to view [...]

[...] was the very consistent -NAO pattern showing up, as well as a weak -EPO much of the time. The SE ridge began to strengthen in february but is fairly weak in DEC/JAN. December 500mb Pattern: Reduced: [...]

[...] . With an overall state of low solar continuing, this winter should be no different then the analog years with late winter EAMT events helping disrupt the upper stratospheric vortex.  [...]

[...] over the north pacific. These factors should make a major warming easier this winter. The analog years I have been using for the stratosphere are 85-86, 01-02, 80-81, 90-91 and 08-09 which all have [...]

[...] pattern, especially for the interior. Another thing that i've found is that all of my analog years except 51-52 actually had a WB nino and I don't think that it's just a coincidence that all [...]

[...] ozone, stronger BDC and nino help keep the wave activity high enough we could see one. 4 of my analog years have this setup but we would need to see major wave breaking pretty quickly. Case 2: No [...]

[...] 13.06 17.40 19.26 19.32 The Dec-Feb SST pattern also matches up very well with forecast SST setup from the ECMWF/CFSv2. Note the warmest ENSO anomalies are in nino 3 and 4 with very warm [...]

[...] Although ENSO conditions have been warming recently, signs pointing towards an SST setup edging more towards cool neutral conditions as we head into october. Easterlies continue to [...]

[...] 768 (214.7K) 500mb Omega: Reduced 65% 1826 x 562 (204.03K) This entire pattern coincides with an H5 setup that is very supportive of poleward propagating anticylones into the mid latitudes with +AAM [...]

[...] If we look at all +QBO shear years, without isolating for solar or ENSO we get the following H5 setup. The important feature to note is the strong East PAC ridging and bering sea trough which would [...]

[...] also matches up very well with forecast SST setup from the ECMWF/CFSv2. Note the warmest ENSO anomalies are in nino 3 and 4 with very warm water east of japan. Cool water is positioned off the west [...]

[...] weaken the upwelling OKW that is following it so that it only acted as a slow down to the upcoming nino instead of denting the anomalous sub-sfc warm pool. For these reasons, I am favouring a high [...]