Sonaliranade

[...] to December end 2013, the Yen depreciated by roughly 55% against the Euro and 35% against the US Dollar.  In the same period, the Euro appreciated by about 16% against the US Dollar.  Yen weakness [...]

[...] is in line with other industrial commodities lends this interpretation some additional weight. US Dollar: Using the Auction process logic for crude you can dissect the above DXY chary in fairly [...]

[...] MARKET NOTES:  The long rumored Dollar rally in world markets is at hand This blog has long held that we [...]

[...] MARKET NOTES:  Commodities likely to turn up.  $GLD & $XAD Commodity markets in general are in the very [...]

[...] MARKET NOTES 12TH January 2014:  World Equity Markets The US, Europe and Japanese markets ended 2013 at or [...]

[...] MARKET NOTES:  18.01.2014.  Is it really time to buy commodities? The commodity cycle has been in a [...]

[...] MARKET NOTES: 29.03.2014.  The bear market in Copper & Crude may be done. The US Dollar [DXY] may have topped out at 80.50 and may be [...]

[...] at the macro level.  But then markets have been so hammered in recent years 6 years of a bear market that I for one wouldn’t question the market’s wisdom.  This blog is just about technicals and [...]

[...] exporters from Japan.  I think the Japanese markets have bottomed out over the long-term.  The bear market from 1989 ended March 2009 and we have just seen Wave I of a new bull markets in Japanese [...]

[...] picture is mixed but the probability of significant price drops towards the tail end of the bear market in things like precious metals is high. As noted earlier, it is USDJPY pair that appears to be [...]

[...] The Prime Minister in his presser categorically & forcefully made two points with regard to Shri Modi. Firstly, that it would be a disaster if Shri Modi were to become the PM. Secondly that Shri [...]

[...] upwards.  Position traders could long the metal at dips with a stop-loss a notch below 3.25. WTI Crude: WTI Crude has been in a corrective uptrend from the low of $77.50 made on 6/22/2012 to the high [...]

[...] region. Copper is a buy for position trade for a target of 3.40 with a stop just under 2.90. WTI Crude: WTI Crude has been in a long-term correction ever since the high of $147.27 on 7/11/2008.  I [...]

[...] and Silver as well.  Not taking a position till the metal’s intentions become clearer. WTI Crude: WTI crude flared up to a high of $112.24 before falling back to close at $107.70.  Crude’ [...]

[...] perhaps trigger the capitulation that the market needs in commodities liker gold, silver and WTI crude. On a more personal note, I will put up the complete blog coverage in parts from next week.  [...]

[...] horizon, I think the long-term uptrend in the USDINR remains firmly in place.  The pair’s 200 DMA lies well below at INR 60 while, the 50 DMA is at 62.12 and the Dollar closed Friday at INR 62.18, [...]

[...] times and this will likely act as a floor to further moves on the downside.  The Dollar’s 50 DMA lies at 62.1 while its 200 DMA is way below at 60.34. My sense is that the correction in the Dollar [...]

[...] from the $NYA chart, the index is headed in an orderly fashion to 8820 price area and the 200 DMA lies currently at 9060.  The index will in all probability simply knife through the 200 DMA bring a [...]

[...] out the resistance would be a very rare but important technical event. The Index’s 50 DMA lies at 1799, while it’s 200 DMA lies way below at 1689.  The S&P 500 usually doesn’t [...]

[...] equity markets into a correction, one has to see how markets react to prices at first support.  Volumes at the critical juncture, both ways, will determine the extent & [...]

[...] count indicates the metal has both time and space to take out the support at $18. First support below $18 lies at $14.  I wouldn’t look at Silver as bull until the charts show that [...]

[...] is little more than one intended to test the last top as the new support. With that in view, first support from the current level lies at 103.50 followed by a more robust support at 101.50.  My sense [...]

[...] suggests that it might just be the usual bullish correction in an uptrend. That said, first support for WTI crude lies at $92.30 and I would be surprised to see a significant breach of $92 given [...]

[...] there.  Nothing bullish about Silver never mind the chatter about commodities turning up etc. HG Copper: Copper closed the week at 3.2240 coming off from the recent high of 3.3885 just under its 200 [...]

[...] has been completely broken down.  The metal’s chart may hide a long sting in its tail. HG Copper: Copper among the metals has held up well so far.  My sense is that Copper has been [...]

[...] no tradable opportunity in the metal to the upside until we see capitulation below $18. HG Copper: Copper remains the most “bullish” of metals in the CRB Index.  It made a low of 2.9875 [...]

[...] gold, which began its decent from September 2011.  So expect Silver to lead the way! HG Copper: To my way of reckoning, Copper completed its last bearish impulsive move at 3.0420 on 3/ [...]

[...] .  The current correction from the top of 1.3892 made on 12/27/13 in no way threatens the long-term uptrend. That said, EURUSD is likely to find support at 1.3550 and that support is followed by more [...]

MARKET NOTES:  18.01.2014.  Is it really time to buy commodities? The commodity cycle has been in a downturn from May 2008 and has run through 6 ye [...]